A crystal ball?
Over the years, I've had my fair share of being on both the right and wrong side of world events. However, on balance, I've noticed an unusual number of times…
The sweet taste of… failure?
I'm always doing research. Sometimes these are large, multi-month projects, but other times they are just a quick look to see "what the data says", and I share some of…
S&P 500 at 2,000. Now what?
[dc]S[/dc]ometimes, the obvious does need to be said. The S&P 500 cash index touched the big round number 2,000 yesterday. Here we are, in late summer, with very little happening…
Spikes in the VIX: Harbinger of a Coming Crash… or Not?
[dc]G[/dc]iven last week’s volatile spikes, there has been a lot of talk about the VIX and volatility in general. This is a good time to take a deeper look at…
Trading Volatility Compression
[dc]I[/dc] want to write what might be a complicated blog post, but stick with me. I'll try to make it as clear as possible, because there is a good lesson…
Sell in May?
[dc]I[/dc] wanted to share a few thoughts and some analysis that we published in our research a week ago, looking at the supposed "sell in May…" effect. There are a…
When You See This, Be Careful
[dc]C[/dc]harts can be a powerful tool for market analysis and trading. At a glance, they can provide a quick overview of important price movements, can highlight supply/demand imbalances, and can…
Is It the Most Wonderful Time of the Year?
This is repost of an article I wrote last year (2012). I would have updated the numbers, but it wasn't really necessary as last December was flat enough that it…
Chart of the Day: December Selloffs
Daily S&P 500 Cash Index with SigmaSpikes® I would like to share a note that I published in my daily research this morning: Yesterday's downward closes in major stock indexes…
Fibonacci Conclusions (2/2)
[dc]T[/dc]oday I want to continue from last week's post on Fibonacci ratios, and wrap up with a few thoughts and conclusions. That post was very heavy on data and charts,…
Testing Fibonaccis (1/2)
Warning: this blog post is not appropriate for all readers. You may find it challenging or disturbing, especially if you are not open to questioning some long-held beliefs. Reader discretion…
Fibonacci Fibs
A look at the numbers in the Fibonacci sequence, and why they might not matter as much as you've been told...
The Slings and Arrows of Outrageous Fortune
A look at what normal variability in trading results can really mean.
Yes, Virginia…
[dc]I[/dc]t's nearly impossible to go a day in December without hearing the phrase "Santa Claus rally." There is an impression that the market tends to rally into the end of…
The Market is Not a Math Problem
Human behavior drives markets. Apply quantitative techniques with caution.