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The Blog of Adam H Grimes

I teach people to make money in financial markets.

A new (FREE) tool to help you

A new (FREE) tool to help you

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:03/23/2020
  • Post category:Market Math / Volatility
  • Post comments:0 Comments

“The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average is off nearly 300 points as of midday today…” You can hear a similar quote on nearly every news outlet many times a day,…

Continue Reading A new (FREE) tool to help you
This is what manipulation looks like

This is what manipulation looks like

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:03/10/2020
  • Post category:Market Math
  • Post comments:0 Comments

I'm always looking at new ways to look at market data, and specifically new ways to present the data visually. Much of this finds its way into my work at…

Continue Reading This is what manipulation looks like
Knowing the future with market stats

Knowing the future with market stats

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:03/02/2020
  • Post category:Market Math
  • Post comments:0 Comments

So, you’ve seen the headlines and, if you somehow missed it when it happened, you know that last week was a period of historically high volatility in the stock indexes.…

Continue Reading Knowing the future with market stats

Using statistics to map the trading day

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:12/06/2018
  • Post category:Chart of the Day / Market Math
  • Post comments:0 Comments

This will be a very quick blog, as I'm just typing a few thoughts here in the first few minutes of what might be a volatile trading day. This morning,…

Continue Reading Using statistics to map the trading day

Santa Claus rally: updated stats and expectations

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:12/04/2018
  • Post category:General Comments / Market Math
  • Post comments:0 Comments

This is the last in a series of blogs looking at December seasonality in stocks. To quickly recap, the first post used a simple binary (up/down) classification to look at…

Continue Reading Santa Claus rally: updated stats and expectations

Is Santa afraid of the Bear?

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:11/30/2018
  • Post category:Market Math
  • Post comments:0 Comments

This is a continuation of a series of posts looking at December seasonality in the stock market. The previous post is here, and the goal of this series is to…

Continue Reading Is Santa afraid of the Bear?

‘Tis the season… or is it? A deeper look at seasonality in stocks.

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:11/29/2018
  • Post category:Market Math / Trading tools
  • Post comments:0 Comments

This is a followup to my previous post that included a visualization of seasonal tendencies for about 90 years of the US stock market. A visualization like that is a good…

Continue Reading ‘Tis the season… or is it? A deeper look at seasonality in stocks.

Is Santa Real? Monthly seasonality in the DJIA

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:11/28/2018
  • Post category:General Comments / Market Math
  • Post comments:0 Comments

This is the first in a short series of blogs in which we will look at the so-called Santa Claus rally in stocks and find some answers to the question…

Continue Reading Is Santa Real? Monthly seasonality in the DJIA

An old paper I co-authored: Patterns in Stock Market Returns (2006)

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:11/21/2018
  • Post category:Market Math
  • Post comments:0 Comments

As we round the corner into the Thanksgiving holiday, I thought I would share another piece of my old writing. I recently found this paper as I was searching through…

Continue Reading An old paper I co-authored: Patterns in Stock Market Returns (2006)

Let’s talk turkey: Thanksgiving seasonality in stocks

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:11/20/2018
  • Post category:Market Math / Technical Patterns
  • Post comments:0 Comments

This is a slightly edited version of the note I sent to my Talon Advisors clients this weekend. There is always a lot of discussion about seasonality at the end…

Continue Reading Let’s talk turkey: Thanksgiving seasonality in stocks

When percents fail

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:11/11/2018
  • Post category:Market Math / Trading tools / Volatility
  • Post comments:0 Comments

Let's think a bit about "signal generation". When we test something in the market what we're looking for is an answer to "What happens after _______ occurs?" This is really…

Continue Reading When percents fail

How bad was October 2018, and what comes next?

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:11/03/2018
  • Post category:Market Math / Volatility
  • Post comments:0 Comments

There’s been a lot of discussion and stats thrown around recently, much of it centered around the idea of “like we just had the worst October ever.” I thought it…

Continue Reading How bad was October 2018, and what comes next?

Understanding intermarket relationships with scatterplots

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:10/22/2018
  • Post category:Market Math / Trading tools
  • Post comments:0 Comments

Please read my last post first, before you begin this one. I ended the last post by suggesting that we were probably more interested in changes than in price levels.…

Continue Reading Understanding intermarket relationships with scatterplots

Revisiting streaks

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:09/17/2018
  • Post category:Market Math / Psychology / Trader Development
  • Post comments:0 Comments

In a previous post, I gave a look at my published swing trade record, with a title on the post of Trading is Hard! Let's revisit that concept, almost exactly…

Continue Reading Revisiting streaks

Is this weird or not? The daily relationship between the S&P 500 and the VIX.

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:04/13/2018
  • Post category:Market Math
  • Post comments:0 Comments

As I was wrapping up a Friday afternoon and getting ready to go play outside, I saw a post in a Facebook group where a guy asked what was up…

Continue Reading Is this weird or not? The daily relationship between the S&P 500 and the VIX.

Video blog: What’s happening with the yield curve and why do we care?

  • Post author:AdamHGrimes
  • Post published:03/21/2018
  • Post category:Institutional Managers/Traders / Market Math / Spreads
  • Post comments:0 Comments

Here's a look at history and the stats behind the fluctuations in the US Treasury Yield Curve. https://youtu.be/iagtes45ek0

Continue Reading Video blog: What’s happening with the yield curve and why do we care?
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