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Probability and Strings of Losses

I received a question from a reader, David: Hey help me out please. I was reading a good blog by a smart math guy and he said that your next trade is always 50% chance of win. No matter what your overall win ratio is the next trade is always 50% chance. Like if your...

What happens after big spikes in the VIX?

I ran a quick study this morning to look at what happens to stock market volatility following large single day volatile events. Note that we are looking at market volatility here, not direction, because the directional message is simpler and clear: historically, large...