by AdamHGrimes | Nov 20, 2018 | Market Math, Technical Patterns
This is a slightly edited version of the note I sent to my Talon Advisors clients this weekend. There is always a lot of discussion about seasonality at the end of the year. This is a troublesome topic—on one hand, there are reasons why seasonality should work:...
by AdamHGrimes | Nov 11, 2018 | Market Math, Trading tools, Volatility
Let’s think a bit about “signal generation”. When we test something in the market what we’re looking for is an answer to “What happens after _______ occurs?” This is really the essence of all backtesting and system...
by AdamHGrimes | Nov 3, 2018 | Market Math, Volatility
There’s been a lot of discussion and stats thrown around recently, much of it centered around the idea of “like we just had the worst October ever.” I thought it might be interesting to crunch some numbers to see how bad it really was, and if we can draw any...
by AdamHGrimes | Oct 22, 2018 | Market Math, Trading tools
Please read my last post first, before you begin this one. I ended the last post by suggesting that we were probably more interested in changes than in price levels. If this isn’t immediately intuitive, then think about it like this: when you put on a position, it’s...
by AdamHGrimes | Sep 17, 2018 | Market Math, Psychology, Trader Development
In a previous post, I gave a look at my published swing trade record, with a title on the post of Trading is Hard! Let’s revisit that concept, almost exactly a month later. The point of that post was that outcomes are “streakier” than we...
by AdamHGrimes | Apr 13, 2018 | Market Math
As I was wrapping up a Friday afternoon and getting ready to go play outside, I saw a post in a Facebook group where a guy asked what was up with the market because this was a rare day on which the market was down, and so was the VIX. I thought this was a good...
