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Why I’m not worried about a recession (yet)

Investors are terrified at the thought of a recession. (Writers love it, because everyone will read an article on a recession!) Investors are right to be concerned, as bear markets in stocks have lined up nicely with recessions--investors have a tough time, and real...

What can we learn from the range?

Markets broadly exist in two states: trends or trading ranges. In other words, a market is happy with the current price (and accepts it) or is moving to another price. Of course, this makes everything sound a bit more predictable than it actually is: trends can...

Using statistics to map the trading day

This will be a very quick blog, as I'm just typing a few thoughts here in the first few minutes of what might be a volatile trading day. This morning, I noticed an extreme negative NYSE TICK reading on the open, and ran some quick stats. The low of today's TICK in the...

Why were we focused on NZD trades?

A week ago, I pointed out trade setups in NZDUSD and many NZD crosses to my MarketLife and Talon clients. Of course, one issue currency traders need to consider is correlated risk; if you take a bunch of trades driven by one particular currency (even if that currency...

Is Santa afraid of the Bear?

This is a continuation of a series of posts looking at December seasonality in the stock market. The previous post is here, and the goal of this series is to both examine the seasonal tendency and to share the thought process. Today, we’re going to do something a...

‘Tis the season… or is it? A deeper look at seasonality in stocks.

This is a followup to my previous post that included a visualization of seasonal tendencies for about 90 years of the US stock market. A visualization like that is a good way to see some patterns in the data, and to maybe get some ideas for further exploration. Today,...

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