Make sure you read my previous blog before this one. In that blog, I examined volatility: what it is, how we measure it, and how it usually behaves. In this blog I will take a look at useful tools for forecasting future volatility from the perspective of an active technical
I'm going to be writing a series of posts over the next few months in which I will return to some core elements of market behavior. I'll show what can be quantified, but also leave the door open for discretionary interpretation. I suspect it's
I did not plan to write this blog, but my previous blog got a pretty big response. I received many questions about the specific things I did and what worked. I still think the general framework, which translates reasonably well to other disciplines, is the most important thing. I will
Successful traders have some unusual quirks in how they think. For my entire career, I've felt these "quirks" are valuable, and the world would probably be a better place if more people adopted them. However, I've always struggled to answer the enthusiasm of a
There are many ways to trade financial markets. Much of the struggle and confusion that traders face comes from not understanding their goals--not knowing how they want to trade. In some very real sense, from not knowing themselves. Gold (and precious metals in general) provides some good examples for
The truth will set you free—that’s the saying that has passed into everyday use from very old scripture. Sometimes, that’s true. But sometimes the truth can destroy us, especially if we try to deny it. This is a good place to begin a series of posts, with
When the trading gets tough, the smart trader… usually trades less. Consider one of the most common mistakes of developing traders. (I feel completely qualified to write on any developing trading mistakes, and to call out how blisteringly stupid and destructive they are. Why? Because I made all these mistakes
The truth will set you free—that’s the saying that has passed into everyday use from very old scripture. Sometimes, that’s true. But sometimes the truth can destroy us, especially if we try to deny it. This is a good place to begin a series of posts, with
Word Count: 1506 Estimated Reading Time: 7-8 minutes While I’ve written extensively on trading approaches and market movements, I still get many questions like, “How do you trade?” and “What tools do you use?” In this post, I’ll share the frame work that makes it all work
Matt asked a question that I sat on for quite a while. I wasn't sure how to write a reasonably concise answer to a good question, but I'll try today. First, the question: I see you don't believe in Fibonacci ratios, but it seems
Over the past week or so, I've written a bit about short term trading strategies on my blog, and I've also done two podcasts (here and here.) Starting tomorrow, I'm going to start a few posts that will look into the statistical behavior of
Trading, markets, and the craft of mastery.
Just a quick look at patterns and concepts applied in an actual trade. This was a trade that was shared with our MarketLife members in advance. Trades like this are easy, but only if you're looking in the right place at the right time. For context, trading has
In my previous post, I shared some perspectives on how I turned my lack of quantitative education into strengths. The structure that came from that process—not being afraid to get my hands dirty with the data, simulating multiple outcomes, and being willing to ask very basic questions—has served
In this post, I want to share some insights into my thought process as a trader. I will follow up with a post looking at Relative Volume. I originally defined, quantified, and coded that tool in 2009-2010, but it grew out of a foundation much deeper. My thought process
Markets are always a mix of signal and noise — the trick is knowing when the balance shifts in your favor. This post breaks down how to spot those rare moments when an edge appears, and when to stand aside to avoid bleeding money in choppy conditions.
Everything changes—the only constant in life and markets. When we think we have it figured out, it changes. This is true in markets, life, and everywhere else. Over the past few months, I’ve been getting a lot of solid work done on the coding front. I’ve launched
Here we are in the dog days of summer. For many traders, this time of the year is usually difficult. Lower trading activity, volume, and generally lower volatility conspire to keep a lid on many opportunities. This is a time of year when I get a lot of thinking done,
TL;DR: AI is transforming everything, but not in the way most people think. The real threat isn’t conscious machines—it’s the flood of low-quality, low-effort content. At MarketLife, we use AI as a tool, not a creator. I still write all long-form content myself.
What’s the right way to read chart structure? That’s the wrong question. This post explains why context and utility matter more than correctness in trading charts.
Content creation is a strange business. On one hand, we’re swamped with content. I could sit in one place for an entire day and not come close to even touching the surface of all the pieces of content on any one of my social media feeds. And, honestly, most
As we step into 2025, I want to take a moment to greet you and wish you good health, wholeness, and success in the coming year. Instead of adding to the end-of-year noise, I waited until now to share this message—along with a few reflections and nuggets
I received an email from a reader named Doug, about my recent blog post: “…I'm definitely a skeptic with the psychology portion of trading - but as a futures day-trader, it may be even more important for me. I'm finally at the point where I have
Every day, I provide detailed market analysis for MarketLife members, focusing on daily setups. We focus primarily on the daily timeframe, and cover markets in two tranches: US-listed futures (and currency futures), and US stocks. We focus on directional trades that are drawn from my work, which you can