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What are the odds? What market stats can and can’t tell us…
I want to share the results of a quick statistical study I did today, and also share a few thoughts about using stats, in general, to shape our trading decisions. (And I promise two things: this won't be a boring blog and if you trade actively, it will give you...
Market Stress Index: Introducing the MSI
There are many tools out there that attempt to quantify the emotional extremes of the market. When we created one, we had one goal: we wanted it to have an actual edge. This meant carefully researching the inputs that would go into the measure, and limiting it to...
Visualizing sector performance
As I continue to share some of the tools I use, I want to look at sectors and sector performance today. I don't think there's much value in looking at a price chart of say, XLE or XLF. The reality is all indexes are pretty strongly correlated and directional technical...
Nested bear flag: CHFJPY
One of the nice things about swing trading is you can have resting orders, so your alert that a pattern has triggered is an order being filled. Here's a nice pattern to put in your trade plan: the nested flag. (I came up with that name years ago, and I still don't...
A daily market dashboard
I am a big fan of data visualizations that help me see what is going on in world markets. Over the years, I've created many versions of these, but the ones I have now are finely crafted tools that strike a great balance between depth and breadth. Early in my...
The volatility game
Take a look at the table of charts below. Each smaller chart shows the 10 largest stocks for that S&P 500 sector. They are graphed with historical (also called realized or statistical) volatility on the horizontal, and implied volatility on the vertical. The dot...
Short setup in crude oil
Here is a trade setup we published today as a MarketLife TradeLab, available to both MarketLife Premium and MarketLife Plus subscribers. We are also offering a lifetime 20% discount on MarketLife. Use the code SPRING19 and sign up today. After offering trading...
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