What to expect here… soon
As we slowly move out of summer and into the end of the year, you’ve probably noticed my blog has picked up in activity. I want to share some things…
A trade a day: free video
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Market Stress Index: Introducing the MSI
There are many tools out there that attempt to quantify the emotional extremes of the market. When we created one, we had one goal: we wanted it to have an…
A daily market dashboard
I am a big fan of data visualizations that help me see what is going on in world markets. Over the years, I've created many versions of these, but the…
I need your help: an opportunity to participate in a research project.
I’ve tested market patterns, technical tools, and fundamental factors in thousands of combinations over the years. For me, this work is a quest for both truth and profits—the truth behind…
Markets stress… trader stress
Here’s a bit of a stream of consciousness post in response to today’s (5/13) market movements. First, these types of moves are often called ‘risk off’ moves because we see…
A few short trading lessons
A few days ago, I published a series of charts on Twitter throughout the day. (You should already be following me on Twitter!) These were intended to be quick-hit, one-off…
Module 2 of the Options Course: pricing
Just a quick end-of-week update on the Options Course. We had the first session two weeks ago (replayhere) in which I introduced the basics of options and outlined the course.…
The law of small numbers: a mistake you’re probably making
One of the very positive advances over the past decade is the amount of attention focused on cognitive biases. We are, through the work of some gifted authors and speakers,…
The power of habit and momentum
So, it's January 14th and I'm writing my first blog of the year. There's an important lesson here: habit, momentum, and daily rhythm are important. I have come to believe…
Are you predicting or not?
Traders often say "I don't predict anything; I just follow my system." I've always found this a little bit curious because when you trade you are making a prediction, based…
Chart of the day: Current technicals for indexes
I thought it might be useful to take a few moments to look at the technical situation in US stock indexes. Though this is important work, we are only going…
Santa Claus rally: updated stats and expectations
This is the last in a series of blogs looking at December seasonality in stocks. To quickly recap, the first post used a simple binary (up/down) classification to look at…
Is Santa Real? Monthly seasonality in the DJIA
This is the first in a short series of blogs in which we will look at the so-called Santa Claus rally in stocks and find some answers to the question…