The volatility game
Take a look at the table of charts below. Each smaller chart shows the 10 largest stocks for that S&P 500 sector. They are graphed with historical (also called realized…
The most important goal of chart analysis
This is the first in a short series of posts in which we will look at the basic, fundamental elements of directional trading. This series will be written for beginning…
S&P 500 futures activity by time of day
Most people know that stock markets tend to be much more active on the open and close, and are often "dead" in the middle of the day. This is important…
When percents fail
Let's think a bit about "signal generation". When we test something in the market what we're looking for is an answer to "What happens after _______ occurs?" This is really…
How bad was October 2018, and what comes next?
There’s been a lot of discussion and stats thrown around recently, much of it centered around the idea of “like we just had the worst October ever.” I thought it…
Reading the chart of Ethereum with sigma spikes: cryptocurrencies aren’t so cryptic after all…
One of the tools I’ve come to rely on over the last 10 years is an indicator I call Sigma Spikes. (Read about it and how to calculate here.) This…
A few lessons on risk in short volatility strategies
There are so many “teachable moments” in recent market action, it’s hard to decide where to start. I think one of the clearest lessons comes from the recent implosion of…
Trust your gut: the power of subjective chartreading
I’ve looked deeply into ratios, levels, and their application to market data. I won’t rehash all of that work here, but, after literally years of research, the bottom line is…
Forecasting volatility
A lot of the questions I get from people are about volatility--how to measure it, how to trade, and even, in a basic level, what it means. I recently added…
What happens after big spikes in the VIX?
I ran a quick study this morning to look at what happens to stock market volatility following large single day volatile events. Note that we are looking at market volatility…
Four things you need to know about quiet markets
How many emails do you get promising to show you how to find "hot stocks now"? How many screeners out there want to show you the movers and shakers in…
NR7: an old friend
Just a quick post to remind you of a technical tool you probably already know about. Like so many things that work, it's not exciting or sexy on the surface.…
How to calculate SigmaSpikes?
I've received a few questions about how to calculate a measure I have referred to many times here on my blog and in my published research that I call SigmaSpikes.…
Finding trend days in index futures
I've written on this topic before, but we just had a good example in the market, so it's a great time to revisit. Many intraday traders find that most of…