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A few lessons on risk in short volatility strategies

There are so many “teachable moments” in recent market action, it’s hard to decide where to start. I think one of the clearest lessons comes from the recent implosion of short volatility products such as XIV and SVXY—good lessons here on volatility and on risk in...

Forecasting volatility

A lot of the questions I get from people are about volatility–how to measure it, how to trade, and even, in a basic level, what it means. I recently added a section on volatility forecasting to the research I write for Waverly Advisors, and I thought it might be...

What happens after big spikes in the VIX?

I ran a quick study this morning to look at what happens to stock market volatility following large single day volatile events. Note that we are looking at market volatility here, not direction, because the directional message is simpler and clear: historically, large...

Four things you need to know about quiet markets

How many emails do you get promising to show you how to find “hot stocks now”? How many screeners out there want to show you the movers and shakers in the market? How much attention does the media focus on big movers, and how much does social media explode...