Cycles, cycles everywhere
I want to share a few of the things I have been thinking about and focusing on in the market. This market environment is not that different than "business as…
On shorting stocks
A few thoughts on shorting stock markets, which may prove to be especially relevant here, as we head into the end of 2022. Long-term stock bias One of the most…
Being right being wrong
There are about ten thousand ways a trade idea can go wrong. You don’t have to trade very long to seemingly encounter most of them in your first handful of…
The worst thing that a daytrader can do
Yesterday, a trader I have worked with a bit over the years (let’s call him M) pinged me with this real-money equity curve: (For the record, that's a pretty good…
Being right and wrong at the same time
I’ve been thinking and writing a lot about uncertainty lately—and about making decisions with incomplete information. Over the past two years, we've all had to make decisions in an uncertain…
Life hacks and learning to trade
One of the interesting developments of the past ten years is the gradual death of the “life hack” approach. This is a good thing. The reason this movement has died…
Are you asking the right questions?
I took part in an interesting exchange in a Facebook group last night, in which a trader was asking “should I buy puts or calls for the spy or qqq?”…
It’s Hard to Learn from the Market
How do we learn? For most things, a pretty simple plan works: do something and evaluate the results. Make some changes to what you do, and see how the results…
Different markets are… different
What is different and what stays the same? This is one of the key questions traders who trade on different timeframes or in different markets face. We often hear the…
Here’s why you can’t win that argument on Facebook
Continuing from my last post, I want to explore how emotion influences our thinking and bias. Humans are not (purely) rational In my trading and investment work, one of the…
Thinking about thinking: lessons from the coronavirus
It’s been a rough few months for all of us—everyone, all over the whole world. I want to share a few thoughts on the coronavirus epidemic, politics, and what this…
What really moves markets?
In the face of recent historic moves in stocks, crude oil, bonds, and many currencies, it is a good idea to step back and think about a fundamental question: what…
Hello, regret, my old friend…
Trading can be emotional. The market often has volatile moves and it seems new highs or the end of the world are just around the corner. In this environment, it’s…
Markets stress… trader stress
Here’s a bit of a stream of consciousness post in response to today’s (5/13) market movements. First, these types of moves are often called ‘risk off’ moves because we see…
How to be more creative
Creativity is, for me, right at the heart of our growth as humans. In this post, I’ll share some ideas for connecting with your own creativity and bringing the power…
The law of small numbers: a mistake you’re probably making
One of the very positive advances over the past decade is the amount of attention focused on cognitive biases. We are, through the work of some gifted authors and speakers,…
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