The worst thing that a daytrader can do
Yesterday, a trader I have worked with a bit over the years (let’s call him M) pinged me with this real-money equity curve: (For the record, that's a pretty good…
Putting the puzzle together: a miniseries on chartreading
My blog is well over 100,000 words, covering a range of trading related topics, and spanning more than a decade of writing. This is both good and bad. The good…
Overshoots and Overreactions
One of the features of financial markets is that they often react to new information with emotional volatility, and overshoot extremes. Understanding this element of price behavior can give us…
Are you feeling lucky?
All traders struggle. For most, it’s a matter of getting through years of struggle at the beginning to see some consistent success. Some traders are unlucky enough to start at…
Creativity and getting unstuck
I want to share a few thoughts here on a recent project I’ve been doing, and maybe provoke some thoughts about creativity, discipline, and the importance of a structured practice.…
A shift in cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are in focus recently. Bitcoin has fallen almost 50% from its peak, and the future seems far less certain than it did a year ago. We were able to…
A bear flag in Treasuries: a good setup and a clean trade
Sometimes I think the world probably does not want to see yet another blog from me illustrating yet another basic pattern… but these “basic patterns” can be wildly profitable. You…
Multiple timeframe conflict
Looking at multiple timeframes of the same market (“multiple timeframe analysis”) is a common practice. There are many nuances to this approach, and many ways to use the information on…
The most important things
Sometimes, it’s hard to know where to start. When we look at charts or go to the market for trading ideas, thousands of pieces of information compete for our attention.…
Being right and wrong at the same time
I’ve been thinking and writing a lot about uncertainty lately—and about making decisions with incomplete information. Over the past two years, we've all had to make decisions in an uncertain…
Did you miss a trade?
What happens if you miss a trade? Newer traders will often make a frustrated FOMO trade, and add a loss to what should have been a non-event. More experienced traders…
Life hacks and learning to trade
One of the interesting developments of the past ten years is the gradual death of the “life hack” approach. This is a good thing. The reason this movement has died…
Are you asking the right questions?
I took part in an interesting exchange in a Facebook group last night, in which a trader was asking “should I buy puts or calls for the spy or qqq?”…
A look at some recent patterns
Summertime is here, and, as far as markets are concerned, it's been here a while. One of the characteristics of summertime trading is generally lower volatility and poorer followthrough. Summer…
Breakouts and breakout failures: real world trading
One of the disconnects for new traders is seeing how patterns play out in the real world. When we learn patterns, we usually start from pristine, idealized examples. But in…
It’s Hard to Learn from the Market
How do we learn? For most things, a pretty simple plan works: do something and evaluate the results. Make some changes to what you do, and see how the results…
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