Cycles, cycles everywhere
I want to share a few of the things I have been thinking about and focusing on in the market. This market environment is not that different than "business as…
On shorting stocks
A few thoughts on shorting stock markets, which may prove to be especially relevant here, as we head into the end of 2022. Long-term stock bias One of the most…
The most important things
Sometimes, it’s hard to know where to start. When we look at charts or go to the market for trading ideas, thousands of pieces of information compete for our attention.…
A new (FREE) tool to help you
“The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average is off nearly 300 points as of midday today…” You can hear a similar quote on nearly every news outlet many times a day,…
This is what manipulation looks like
I'm always looking at new ways to look at market data, and specifically new ways to present the data visually. Much of this finds its way into my work at…
The volatility game
Take a look at the table of charts below. Each smaller chart shows the 10 largest stocks for that S&P 500 sector. They are graphed with historical (also called realized…
Markets stress… trader stress
Here’s a bit of a stream of consciousness post in response to today’s (5/13) market movements. First, these types of moves are often called ‘risk off’ moves because we see…
Are the secrets of price action hidden in randomness?
This might be a more challenging blog post than most, but if you’re interested in really understanding price action I think it’s very important. Over the past several weeks I’ve…
Do interest rates scare you?
Interest rates are constantly in the headlines. When I talk to traders and investors, interest rates are one of the topics that always come up. There's a great deal of…
Is this weird or not? The daily relationship between the S&P 500 and the VIX.
As I was wrapping up a Friday afternoon and getting ready to go play outside, I saw a post in a Facebook group where a guy asked what was up…
Chart of the day: volatility
Both the level of vol and the relationship of implieds to realized (historical vol) are important. Low vol environments bring some unique risks, but don't assume that vol "must" go…
Trust your gut: the power of subjective chartreading
I’ve looked deeply into ratios, levels, and their application to market data. I won’t rehash all of that work here, but, after literally years of research, the bottom line is…
Chart of the day: global stock volatility
Here's a chart I published yesterday in the research I write for Waverly Advisors. I thought no comment other than "wow" was needed... (Edit: my work is now available at…
What happens after big spikes in the VIX?
I ran a quick study this morning to look at what happens to stock market volatility following large single day volatile events. Note that we are looking at market volatility…
Four things you need to know about quiet markets
How many emails do you get promising to show you how to find "hot stocks now"? How many screeners out there want to show you the movers and shakers in…
NR7: an old friend
Just a quick post to remind you of a technical tool you probably already know about. Like so many things that work, it's not exciting or sexy on the surface.…