How to calculate SigmaSpikes?
I've received a few questions about how to calculate a measure I have referred to many times here on my blog and in my published research that I call SigmaSpikes.…
Finding trend days in index futures
I've written on this topic before, but we just had a good example in the market, so it's a great time to revisit. Many intraday traders find that most of…
A few thoughts, at the end of a historic trading day
Before I call it a day, I thought I'd share a few thoughts with you. For those of you finding this post later, US stocks broke down Thursday of last…
Where will the S&P 500 go next? Here’s how to find the answer.
Given the action in US stocks this week, I thought this might be a good time to share a few thoughts about the market. I hope to be able to…
China is in a bear market! Now what?
If you could hear anything beyond the screaming this morning over Greece, you probably also heard the news that China is now officially--yes, that's right officially--in a bear market as…
What happens after a big down day in stocks?
So the stock market sold off hard yesterday. If you were living under a big enough rock you might have missed it, but now the doom and gloomers, the technicians…
To buy or not to buy…?
We can simplify many of the problems of technical or tactical trading to one question: assume that a market just made a large move. Do we want to fade (go…
What to do with quiet markets?
Just a high level perspective on what we have going on in a few major markets this week. In general, most markets are in some kind of volatility compression. Volatility…
Tracking intraday risk and opportunity
I spend a lot of time writing about volatility and even more time thinking about volatility, correlations, and the implications for risk. I want to share a quick look at…
Bobbing for Apple?
Since my other post today led you down a long trail of something that did not work, let me leave you this weekend with a pattern to watch over the…
Five things we can do with charts… that work
[dc]I[/dc] have written a lot this week, much of what I wrote calling for critical attention to traditional technical analysis. I thought it might make sense to end the week…
Volatility Clustering
[dc]I[/dc]t is certainly easy to find examples of real charts beside randomly generated charts--whether on websites and in books--and most traders know, by now, that it is very difficult to…
Four Trading Ideas
[dc]O[/dc]ur trading ideas, "setups", if you will, must change with market conditions. Certain types of trades are more relevant at certain times. For instance, if the market is dramatically overextended,…
Spikes in the VIX: Harbinger of a Coming Crash… or Not?
[dc]G[/dc]iven last week’s volatile spikes, there has been a lot of talk about the VIX and volatility in general. This is a good time to take a deeper look at…
Trading Volatility Compression
[dc]I[/dc] want to write what might be a complicated blog post, but stick with me. I'll try to make it as clear as possible, because there is a good lesson…
Trading the Unexpected
A pattern in volatility can sometimes give a directional tilt to the market, but, more importantly, how do we know when a trade is wrong and what do we do about it?