Support and resistance… right now
Support and resistance is a controversial topic. Traders’ cognitive bias and random price motion conspire to play tricks on the mind. Many technical analysis books and gurus parrot conventional wisdom…
Using highs and lows
How do we know how that market is doing on any day? If we turn on the news, we will hear something like “the Dow Jones is up 40 points…”,…
What are the odds? What market stats can and can’t tell us…
I want to share the results of a quick statistical study I did today, and also share a few thoughts about using stats, in general, to shape our trading decisions.…
What we learned about price levels
This is part 2 of a two part blog. Read the first part here. Quick summary: to test the validity of price levels in markets, we created a test in…
When is a human better than a machine? Using human discretion in quantitative testing.
First, thank you to each of you who participated in the experiment/quiz. We have stopped collecting data, but you can re-take the quiz and see which answers were right or…
What can we learn from the range?
Markets broadly exist in two states: trends or trading ranges. In other words, a market is happy with the current price (and accepts it) or is moving to another price.…
Chartschool: The importance of the previous day’s high / low
https://youtu.be/cx1Sbk8aGDo
Shifting price dynamics in the AUDUSD: what shadows can tell us
Sometimes, reading market action is about putting the pieces together... building a big picture from the composite of small bits of information that might not seem terribly meaningful by themselves.…
Video blog: a look at Price Rejection in GBPUSD and Crude Oil futures
https://youtu.be/FHGOSgfqbjY
Hidden in plain sight: trading multiple timeframe influences
Multiple timeframe analysis is almost a buzzword in technical analysis. I have been involved in markets actively for two decades, and have been an active participant in dialogue about markets…
An easy way to avoid some losses
I can get right to the punchline, and make this a very short blog post: don't trade when the market you trade is in consolidation; more specifically, do not trade…
Followthrough matters: using subjective analysis in the S&P 500
I've focused quite a bit here on quantitative aspects of trading and market analysis, and I've also just scratched the surface of the thorny subject of intuition. Today, I want…
Failure Test Followthrough in the EUR
[dc]T[/dc]he chart above is a daily chart of the EURUSD. I've written before about some of the challenges with using technical analysis in currencies—it's not that it can't be done,…
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