Bands or channels are usually set up around some type of moving average. They define what is normal for a market, so excursions outside the bands are potentially interesting. There…
I want to share the results of a quick statistical study I did today, and also share a few thoughts about using stats, in general, to shape our trading decisions.…
This week, in our pattern analysis group, we’re looking at Trend Termination plays. This terminology might be a bit confusing at first. It stems from a system I came up…
https://youtu.be/GLNqlHmPErE
I have found, over the years, solid results from trading a handful of patterns put in the proper context. Perhaps the most useful of those patterns in the pullback, which…
Recent action in copper futures gives us some market lessons. These can be adapted to other markets and timeframes (so if you just trade stocks or currencies, don’t skip over…
One of the key challenges for discretionary traders is balancing short-term and longer-term information. Err too far on either side, and bad things will happen: Focus too much on short-term,…
One of the themes I've written on recently is that we need to be careful how we think about trend change and end of trend patterns. I think too much…
Take a look at this picture which I took a few years ago, on a Friday afternoon, on a New York / New Jersey ferry. After a long and stressful…
Let's talk about endings today. If we can better understand the patterns that often occur when trends end, we are better equipped to manage risk, place stops, and, in general,…
Effective trading patterns are usually simple. The more complicated an idea is, the more likely it is the result of trying to fit very random data (i.e., the market) into…
I initiated a short in crude oil back in July, and an astute reader sent me a good question. For many weeks/months I had been operating with the assumption that…
Let me preface this by saying two things: First, I'm bullish on global stocks over even moderately long timeframes. Technicians like to call tops, but I think this bull market…
http://youtu.be/wCUW_KIwxEk A look at current conditions in crude oil, and some general comments on how to fade a trend.
One of the curious elements of human psychology is the tendency to fade moves or to try to pick turning points in trends. When I started trading, this was how…
[dc]I[/dc]'ve seen a lot of charts floating around talking about the "big reversal" in grains, and specifically corn. I think there are a few important lessons here, so allow me…