Is Santa Real? Monthly seasonality in the DJIA
This is the first in a short series of blogs in which we will look at the so-called Santa Claus rally in stocks and find some answers to the question…
How to avoid some bad trades
Take a look at the chart above. Notice three things near the right edge of the chart: An intermediate term moving average is flat Price is never moving far from…
How to learn about indicators
This weekend, a reader, Paul, asked: In my limited understanding, Rsi, cci and % r are all basically trying to show the same thing When is one better than the…
An old paper I co-authored: Patterns in Stock Market Returns (2006)
As we round the corner into the Thanksgiving holiday, I thought I would share another piece of my old writing. I recently found this paper as I was searching through…
Guest post: Ohhh, Is That A Shiny Penny On The Ground?
[Here's a guest post from a great system developer, honest guy, and my friend Kevin Davey. He beat me to the punch with an article on option selling/writing premium. Tom…
Let’s talk turkey: Thanksgiving seasonality in stocks
This is a slightly edited version of the note I sent to my Talon Advisors clients this weekend. There is always a lot of discussion about seasonality at the end…
This does not look like that
I write a lot of words, but sometimes words aren't really necessary. I'll just leave you a look at the current chart of the S&P 500 index (daily), alongside the…
Reader question: is anyone worried?
In a Facebook discussion group I run, Dan asked if anyone was worried about the market. In this own words: I know you guys are robots who play the tape,…
S&P 500 futures activity by time of day
Most people know that stock markets tend to be much more active on the open and close, and are often "dead" in the middle of the day. This is important…
How do you know if you’re chasing a trade or not?
FOMO (fear of missing out) is a killer in the markets. One of the surest ways to lose money is to miss a trade, get frustrated, and then bang into…
When is a recovery not a recovery?
At the end of last week (week ended 11/9/18), many technical analysis were pointing to "recoveries" in Europe and Asian stock indexes. The observation was that most global stock indexes…
When percents fail
Let's think a bit about "signal generation". When we test something in the market what we're looking for is an answer to "What happens after _______ occurs?" This is really…
TradeLab: Reviewing some recent trades we published
I firmly believe the best trading lessons come from the market... and the best of the best trading lessons come from your own work and trading. Let me share some…
ChartSchool: trading the Anti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glC46qBLaM8
How bad was October 2018, and what comes next?
There’s been a lot of discussion and stats thrown around recently, much of it centered around the idea of “like we just had the worst October ever.” I thought it…
Visualizing volatility: sector perspective
https://youtu.be/WfQd02vcWqE
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