Chart of the Day
tlt
Chart of the Day
Chart of the day: bear flag in Treasury futures
A market that is often a focal point for political opinion, fears, and speculation. None of that is necessary when your trading plan has an edge...
Chart of the Day
Post election market analysis and overview
I want to share a video I did for my research subscribers this week. Though this is a few days old, it's still valuable. I would like you to think about two things as you watch this video: First, I do look at trends and most likely price
Trading tools
Basic backtesting in Excel: Conditions, logic, and stats
Pat yourself on the back if you've come this far in the little backtesting mini-course. After many posts, we've basically gotten data into a spreadsheet and calculated some moving averages. You probably aren't blown away by what we've accomplished, but think again:
Trading tools
Basic backtesting in Excel: graphs and first calculations
Continuing on with the short series on backtesting in Excel, let's look at some tools to visualize data and make some simple calculations. Excel is a good tool for quick and dirty data visualization in some cases--basic Excel graphs can be made quickly and show the relationships between
General Comments
Basic backtesting in Excel: issues with data
If you've been following along with the short Excel course, you've created a spreadsheet using SPY daily data, and added daily TLT data to the sheet in another column. I received a few questions about why we needed to match the two series with a VLOOKUP
General Comments
Basic backtesting in Excel: More data
Today, we will add another data series to our file we created yesterday that had daily SPY data in it. It's not quite as simple as pasting the new data into the sheet; we need to make sure they line up correctly. Tomorrow, we will take a little
Chart of the Day
Five charts to start the week
I thought it might be useful to star the week with a look at trends and possible inflections in a number of major markets. Here's a quick look at stocks, biotechs, Treasury futures, and crude oil. Bottom line: * Stocks failed to develop downward momentum. Further consolidation around current
Pullback
What matters more than your process?
So, we live in a world in which investors are nervous. Everyone knows the Fed is going to raise rates, it's only a question of when and how much. Everyone knows that bond prices move inversely to rates, so higher rates will lead to lower bond futures prices.
Psychology
A few thoughts, at the end of a historic trading day
Before I call it a day, I thought I'd share a few thoughts with you. For those of you finding this post later, US stocks broke down Thursday of last week from a long, extended range, and closed the week Friday with what might be charitably called a
Climax
Technicals for everyone: overbought / oversold
Continuing from yesterday's post, I wanted to dig a little bit deeper into the idea of what happens when markets go too far, too fast and snap back. This concept is called overbought/oversold in the traditional technical literature, and it is one of the most important elements
Chart of the Day
Current market overview: weekly webinar
This is an important time in global markets. Equities are at a potentially important inflection, and short term noise may be misleading many players. Currencies have had some fantastic moves, but now there is the danger of snapbacks over the next few weeks. Precious metals, petroleum, grains? There is opportunity,