Markets Unlocked 11/14/22: Is the market wrong?
The market had a stunning reaction to the CPI number this week, with one of the largest gap openings on record (to regular session hours), and a historic uptrending day…
Markets Unlocked 11/7/2022: Time to pay attention to the yield curve
So, folks, there’s news: our yield curve model inverted (for the first time since 2007) on 10/27/22. While nearly everyone seems to be aware that the yield curve is inverted,…
Markets Unlocked 10/31/22: Fed Watch
Happy Halloween, everyone! As we head into the end of the first month of the last quarter of the year, the major news behind us is a GDP report. Politicians…
Markets Unlocked 10/24/22: Sectors, yen, and what’s real?
A few thoughts here, as we head into the end of October. Don’t be misled by daily moves There’s a lot of noise in markets. Commentators (of all sorts) report…
Cycles, cycles everywhere
I want to share a few of the things I have been thinking about and focusing on in the market. This market environment is not that different than "business as…
Markets Unlocked 10/17/22: what about this week’s reversal?
Thursday was one for the record books—stocks (and other risk assets) initially cratered under the CPI number, but quickly picked up momentum to the upside and finished the day in…
On shorting stocks
A few thoughts on shorting stock markets, which may prove to be especially relevant here, as we head into the end of 2022. Long-term stock bias One of the most…
Markets Unlocked 10/10/22: Where is crude oil going?
In the interest of brevity, I’m going to write this weekend’s email almost in bullet point format. There’s a lot here, so let’s get going! Global stocks are still under…
Being right being wrong
There are about ten thousand ways a trade idea can go wrong. You don’t have to trade very long to seemingly encounter most of them in your first handful of…
Markets Unlocked 10/3/22: a trade idea and timeframe expectations
Well that was an interesting month and quarter. I’m writing the second in what I expect will be a long series of weekend emails after one of the weakest months…
2022 Update on trades, profit targets, and new directions
Much of this year passed in a blur! It’s been a minute since I posted last, so I thought I would just write a short post to let you know…
Welcome to Markets Unlocked 9/24/22: A look at our MSI, a fear gauge that works
As we cross the line into fall, we are going to start publishing a short end-of-week update. We'll share some of our thoughts on the current market environment--what you need…
The worst thing that a daytrader can do
Yesterday, a trader I have worked with a bit over the years (let’s call him M) pinged me with this real-money equity curve: (For the record, that's a pretty good…
Putting the puzzle together: a miniseries on chartreading
My blog is well over 100,000 words, covering a range of trading related topics, and spanning more than a decade of writing. This is both good and bad. The good…
Overshoots and Overreactions
One of the features of financial markets is that they often react to new information with emotional volatility, and overshoot extremes. Understanding this element of price behavior can give us…
Are you feeling lucky?
All traders struggle. For most, it’s a matter of getting through years of struggle at the beginning to see some consistent success. Some traders are unlucky enough to start at…