All eyes will be on the FOMC mid-week, and we expect that markets will react, perhaps with extreme volatility, to any comments. This environment should underscore the futility of trading on the news–traders who do so will continually find themselves a step behind.
Recent weeks have seen markets diverge sharply, with some lagging sectors picking up strength. The Nasdaq has been insulated from the crisis that has wreaked havoc on banking stocks, and it’s always interesting to watch leading groups.
The most bullish picture for the market comes from the longer-term structure of the Nasdaq. (See graphic with swings attached.) While this picture certainly could prove to be wrong, the overall environment has been unrelentingly bearish–this often sets the stage for a move in the other direction. We also remind our readers that all-time highs are not far overhead in major indexes…
The week ahead (potentially market-moving datapoints)
- Monday: None
- Tuesday: 10:00 Existing Home Sales, FOMC Meeting Begins
- Wednesday: 14:00 FOMC Decision, 14:30 Powell Press Conference
- Thursday: 8:30 Jobless Claims, 10:00 New Home Sales
- Friday: 8:30 Durable Goods; 9:45 Services & Manufacturing PMIs