Basic backtesting in Excel: issues with data
If you've been following along with the short Excel course, you've created a spreadsheet using SPY daily data, and added daily TLT data to the sheet in another column. I…
Basic backtesting in Excel: More data
Today, we will add another data series to our file we created yesterday that had daily SPY data in it. It's not quite as simple as pasting the new data…
Basic backtesting in Excel: Getting data
Continuing from yesterday's post, let's roll up our sleeves and get into the process of managing data in Excel. The purpose of this short series of posts is to give…
Basic backtesting in Excel: Introduction
I've received many questions about how to do basic backtesting in Excel. I think I wrote in my book that we all have a love/hate relationship with Excel: it's a…
No, it’s not all the same
I'm convinced that one of the biggest lies of traditional technical analysis (TA) is that "you can apply any tool to any market or any timeframe with the same results."…
How to calculate SigmaSpikes?
I've received a few questions about how to calculate a measure I have referred to many times here on my blog and in my published research that I call SigmaSpikes.…
Where will the S&P 500 go next? Here’s how to find the answer.
Given the action in US stocks this week, I thought this might be a good time to share a few thoughts about the market. I hope to be able to…
Slip and slide (along the bands)
Effective trading patterns are usually simple. The more complicated an idea is, the more likely it is the result of trying to fit very random data (i.e., the market) into…
Catching the wave: ideas for finding trend days
I received a question from Alex, which appears to be a simple question. Digging deeper, it actually drives straight to the essence of intraday trading: If I am wanting to…
A new look at measuring trend days
For intraday traders, trend days can offer outsized rewards. For some styles of traders, much of the work of trading is focused on capturing trend days, and most of the…
Video blog: using the daily market stats
An in-depth look at the intraday market stats page on this blog, with some ideas for using these stats to enter and manage trades. This is not just a tool…
A look at global relative strength
Where do we start? It's easy to get overwhelmed with the number of assets and markets in the global marketplace. Are you looking at everything you need to? Do you…
A new tool to measure trend strength: the Grimes Efficiency Ratio
Is a market trending or not? Even this simple question, which is at the heart of most of our thinking about markets, is not easy to answer. Definitions of trend…
Visualizing USD trend strength
The US Dollar is in a trend of historic proportions; the strength and rapidity of its advance has shocked many other currencies as they scramble to adapt to the new…
How to draw trend lines
One of the complaints leveled against technical analysis is that tools are primarily visual and subjective, rather than being true analytical tools. There certainly is some truth to these complaints…
The power of the channel
Trendlines are useful. For the uninitiated, it may seem odd to draw lines on charts and to expect them to work, but what we are actually doing here is to…