Chart of the day: NFLX
Good pattern to commit to memory. Probably not a great idea to initiate positions before earnings, but this is also not the only stock with this pattern right now...
Reader question: How to handle exits?
Glenn comes back today with another good question. Here's his full, unedited question: Your many hats, your one job, the one and only thing that matters. For what it is…
No, it’s not all the same.
In my last post, I showed a quick test of a simple system applied to the futures markets. The point of that post was to show how a simple quantitative…
Testing a trend-following approach in futures
In this post, we'll take a look at a common trend-following trading idea: channel breakouts (also called Donchian channels). I want to share with you a way of looking at…
No, it’s not all the same
I'm convinced that one of the biggest lies of traditional technical analysis (TA) is that "you can apply any tool to any market or any timeframe with the same results."…
Finding trend days in index futures
I've written on this topic before, but we just had a good example in the market, so it's a great time to revisit. Many intraday traders find that most of…
Bullish setups in US stock indexes
I've been writing about this for quite a while, tweeting about it, pointing out the relative strength in smaller cap names, constructive sector flows, volatility compression that could support a…
Could stocks be ready to break out? What’s your plan?
Group-think is a problem in markets; so many smart people look at the same (pretty limited) set of information, so it's easy to understand why many people come to similar…
Gold: a big drop in the big picture?
I thought it might be useful to step back and take a look at gold from a much longer-term perspective. First, the monthly chart (difference back-adjusted continuous futures): The first…
To buy or not to buy…?
We can simplify many of the problems of technical or tactical trading to one question: assume that a market just made a large move. Do we want to fade (go…
What to do with quiet markets?
Just a high level perspective on what we have going on in a few major markets this week. In general, most markets are in some kind of volatility compression. Volatility…
Possible breakout in the euro
I have written before about volatility compression, which is the tendency for markets to make cleaner, more directional moves after the volatility has contracted on the same timeframe. Triangles and/or…
Reader Question: Gaps and Context
Reader Shai suggests a clarification on my last post, specifically concerning the gap and the idea of slippage being a good sign for a trade: Like always great posts. Again,…
Trading the Rally in India: Gaps and Risk
[dc]I[/dc] wanted to follow up on my recent post about trading the rally in India. I ended that post with a question: We were planning to enter EPI (an earnings-weighted…
Trading the Rally in India
[dc]T[/dc]oday I want to take a look at the recent move in India's stock market. I will discuss how we traded it (and signaled the move far in advance) in…