On shorting stocks
A few thoughts on shorting stock markets, which may prove to be especially relevant here, as we head into the end of 2022. Long-term stock bias One of the most…
Markets Unlocked 10/10/22: Where is crude oil going?
In the interest of brevity, I’m going to write this weekend’s email almost in bullet point format. There’s a lot here, so let’s get going! Global stocks are still under…
Being right being wrong
There are about ten thousand ways a trade idea can go wrong. You don’t have to trade very long to seemingly encounter most of them in your first handful of…
Markets Unlocked 10/3/22: a trade idea and timeframe expectations
Well that was an interesting month and quarter. I’m writing the second in what I expect will be a long series of weekend emails after one of the weakest months…
2022 Update on trades, profit targets, and new directions
Much of this year passed in a blur! It’s been a minute since I posted last, so I thought I would just write a short post to let you know…
Welcome to Markets Unlocked 9/24/22: A look at our MSI, a fear gauge that works
As we cross the line into fall, we are going to start publishing a short end-of-week update. We'll share some of our thoughts on the current market environment--what you need…
The worst thing that a daytrader can do
Yesterday, a trader I have worked with a bit over the years (let’s call him M) pinged me with this real-money equity curve: (For the record, that's a pretty good…
Putting the puzzle together: a miniseries on chartreading
My blog is well over 100,000 words, covering a range of trading related topics, and spanning more than a decade of writing. This is both good and bad. The good…
Overshoots and Overreactions
One of the features of financial markets is that they often react to new information with emotional volatility, and overshoot extremes. Understanding this element of price behavior can give us…
Are you feeling lucky?
All traders struggle. For most, it’s a matter of getting through years of struggle at the beginning to see some consistent success. Some traders are unlucky enough to start at…
Creativity and getting unstuck
I want to share a few thoughts here on a recent project I’ve been doing, and maybe provoke some thoughts about creativity, discipline, and the importance of a structured practice.…
A shift in cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are in focus recently. Bitcoin has fallen almost 50% from its peak, and the future seems far less certain than it did a year ago. We were able to…
A bear flag in Treasuries: a good setup and a clean trade
Sometimes I think the world probably does not want to see yet another blog from me illustrating yet another basic pattern… but these “basic patterns” can be wildly profitable. You…
Multiple timeframe conflict
Looking at multiple timeframes of the same market (“multiple timeframe analysis”) is a common practice. There are many nuances to this approach, and many ways to use the information on…
The most important things
Sometimes, it’s hard to know where to start. When we look at charts or go to the market for trading ideas, thousands of pieces of information compete for our attention.…
Being right and wrong at the same time
I’ve been thinking and writing a lot about uncertainty lately—and about making decisions with incomplete information. Over the past two years, we've all had to make decisions in an uncertain…