Markets Unlocked 12/19/21: Cycle highs?
Here we go... heading into the end of the year. In terms of pure price patterns, there's a reasonable chance that an intermediate-term cycle top is in place in major…
Markets Unlocked 12/5/22: Is Santa coming this year?
Happy December, everyone. As we head into the end of the year, let’s take a quick look at where the market is likely headed in the near term, in the…
Markets Unlocked 11/21/22: Thanksgiving day seasonal bias
Markets were solidly locked in tight ranges this week, with many cryptocurrencies winding down in tight coils. We reminded our MarketLife members that, while such patterns always lead to great…
Markets Unlocked 11/14/22: Is the market wrong?
The market had a stunning reaction to the CPI number this week, with one of the largest gap openings on record (to regular session hours), and a historic uptrending day…
Markets Unlocked 11/7/2022: Time to pay attention to the yield curve
So, folks, there’s news: our yield curve model inverted (for the first time since 2007) on 10/27/22. While nearly everyone seems to be aware that the yield curve is inverted,…
Markets Unlocked 10/31/22: Fed Watch
Happy Halloween, everyone! As we head into the end of the first month of the last quarter of the year, the major news behind us is a GDP report. Politicians…
Markets Unlocked 10/24/22: Sectors, yen, and what’s real?
A few thoughts here, as we head into the end of October. Don’t be misled by daily moves There’s a lot of noise in markets. Commentators (of all sorts) report…
Cycles, Cycles Everywhere
I want to share a few of the things I have been thinking about and focusing on in the market. This market environment is not that different than "business as…
Markets Unlocked 10/17/22: what about this week’s reversal?
Thursday was one for the record books—stocks (and other risk assets) initially cratered under the CPI number, but quickly picked up momentum to the upside and finished the day in…
On Shorting Stocks
A few thoughts on shorting stock markets, which may prove to be especially relevant here, as we head into the end of 2022. Long-term stock bias One of the most…
Markets Unlocked 10/10/22: Where is crude oil going?
In the interest of brevity, I’m going to write this weekend’s email almost in bullet point format. There’s a lot here, so let’s get going! Global stocks are still under…
Being Right Being Wrong
There are about ten thousand ways a trade idea can go wrong. You don’t have to trade very long to seemingly encounter most of them in your first handful of…
Markets Unlocked 10/3/22: a trade idea and timeframe expectations
Well that was an interesting month and quarter. I’m writing the second in what I expect will be a long series of weekend emails after one of the weakest months…
2022 Update on Trades, Profit Targets, and Dew Directions
Much of this year passed in a blur! It’s been a minute since I posted last, so I thought I would just write a short post to let you know…
Welcome to Markets Unlocked 9/24/22: A look at our MSI, a fear gauge that works
As we cross the line into fall, we are going to start publishing a short end-of-week update. We'll share some of our thoughts on the current market environment--what you need…
The Worst Thing That a Daytrader Can Do
Yesterday, a trader I have worked with a bit over the years (let’s call him M) pinged me with this real-money equity curve: (For the record, that's a pretty good…