Trading against your bias: how and why
I initiated a short in crude oil back in July, and an astute reader sent me a good question. For many weeks/months I had been operating with the assumption that…
Back in the saddle again
I thought I'd kick the week off with a short, and maybe uncharacteristically personal post. As you've noticed, I haven't posted much (umm... at all) over the past few weeks.…
Posts are slow lately…
Just a quick (semi) post here to apologize for the lack of new posts here! I have some good stuff for you soon, but also a few things sucking up…
MarketLife Ep 22 – Acts of God: managing market extremes
This podcast episode looks at trading around market extremes, Acts of God, and very large market moves. From market history, some examples might be 9/11, 1987, Fukushima, Katrina, etc. Today,…
Catching the wave: ideas for finding trend days
I received a question from Alex, which appears to be a simple question. Digging deeper, it actually drives straight to the essence of intraday trading: If I am wanting to…
China is in a bear market! Now what?
If you could hear anything beyond the screaming this morning over Greece, you probably also heard the news that China is now officially--yes, that's right officially--in a bear market as…
Using context to refine an entry in the EURUSD
The EUR/USD provides a good example of how we can use higher timeframe context to motivate an entry based on a lower timeframe breakout. First, the big(ger) picture, from the…
Your best trading book is your own trading book: four steps to making it real
There are a few practices that consistently separate winning traders from the losers. True, there is an incredible diversity of winning strategies, approaches, and personalities, and winning traders do and…
MarketLife Ep 21 – Pulling the trigger: where, how, and why?
A look at how to execute trades: where they set up, and how, when, where, and why to pull the trigger--to make the decision to get into or out of…
Six keys to effective risk management
1. It is not just that risk is hard to understand--some risks may be impossible to understand. Your risk management plan has to leave room for the unknown and the…
Where are your risks?
Traders talk about and think about risk all the time, and for good reason: this is a risky business! A lot of things can go wrong, and some of those…
MarketLife Ep 20 – Market cycles and regimes
A_Joe sent me a question on market cycles: You wrote a post (here) that talked about market cycles. I request that you share some more information on market regimes and…
Chart of the day: Short term setup in S&P 500 (6/5/15)
Yesterday’s moderately strong downtrend came within higher timeframe consolidation. This is still a market primed for a stronger trend move. Do not fade a break above or below key levels…
Time of day influences in currencies
In my last post, I looked at intraday activity in stock indexes; I had a few requests to repeat the same work, showing time of day influences--intraday volume (tick volume)…
Chart of the day: S&P 500 short term setup (6/4/15)
This is still a market seeking a catalyst, though bullish factors continue to accumulate. Look for a strong rally above the 2121-2124 level; do not fade a breakout that holds…
It’s all in a day’s work
I want to share a few observations on trading activity during the trading day. I will focus on the S&P 500 futures here, but may extend this (if there's interest)…
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