Three steps to make sure you never miss that move
I've written a few posts recently about doing the right thing and the pain of missing moves. Sometimes very simple concepts can get us far, and I want to propose…
Where are markets going next? My current thinking and positioning
I appreciate the opportunity to share with you, my readers, here on this blog. Over the years I've learned a lot from you, have had you challenge my thinking in…
Video blog: market conditions and trend structure
I wanted to share a video that I do weekly for my research subscribers. (More information and a free trial is available here.) This is something a bit different from…
No, it’s not all the same.
In my last post, I showed a quick test of a simple system applied to the futures markets. The point of that post was to show how a simple quantitative…
Testing a trend-following approach in futures
In this post, we'll take a look at a common trend-following trading idea: channel breakouts (also called Donchian channels). I want to share with you a way of looking at…
The early bird… gets stopped out a lot
One of the themes I've written on recently is that we need to be careful how we think about trend change and end of trend patterns. I think too much…
Five charts to start the week
I thought it might be useful to star the week with a look at trends and possible inflections in a number of major markets. Here's a quick look at stocks,…
The trend is your friend, except at the end…
Let's talk about endings today. If we can better understand the patterns that often occur when trends end, we are better equipped to manage risk, place stops, and, in general,…
A few thoughts, at the end of a historic trading day
Before I call it a day, I thought I'd share a few thoughts with you. For those of you finding this post later, US stocks broke down Thursday of last…
Slip and slide (along the bands)
Effective trading patterns are usually simple. The more complicated an idea is, the more likely it is the result of trying to fit very random data (i.e., the market) into…
Trading against your bias: how and why
I initiated a short in crude oil back in July, and an astute reader sent me a good question. For many weeks/months I had been operating with the assumption that…
MarketLife Ep 18 – Short term trading
Short term trading, intraday trading, daytrading--call it what you will, these styles of trading bring some unique challenges. Tools and approaches that work in other timeframes also work intraday, but…
Hidden in plain sight: trading multiple timeframe influences
Multiple timeframe analysis is almost a buzzword in technical analysis. I have been involved in markets actively for two decades, and have been an active participant in dialogue about markets…
A new tool to measure trend strength: the Grimes Efficiency Ratio
Is a market trending or not? Even this simple question, which is at the heart of most of our thinking about markets, is not easy to answer. Definitions of trend…
What to do with quiet markets?
Just a high level perspective on what we have going on in a few major markets this week. In general, most markets are in some kind of volatility compression. Volatility…
Video blog: time to buy crude oil?
http://youtu.be/wCUW_KIwxEk A look at current conditions in crude oil, and some general comments on how to fade a trend.