Market stats: how to catch a common error
Financial markets are highly uncertain, and every decision we make is ruled by the iron fist of probability. For traders and investors, statistics, whether expressed explicitly or learned implicitly from…
Bad statistics lead to bad decisions: the first day of the month effect
It is easy to calculate statistics, and it seems like, more and more, we are bombarded with market statistics from every side. The problem is that many of those statistics…
Guest blog: decisions for success
Here is something a little different today: a guest blog from David Blair, the Crosshairs Trader, who like all of us wears many hats. He is a trader, blogger, and…
Is the current bull market overextended? A historical perspective:
There is a lot of talk about the "historic bull market" we are in. Fundamental analysts raise valuation concerns, while technicians point to a myriad of factors, usually making the…
The rhythm of the market
Rhythm is important. Without the rhythm of the tides and seasons, there would be no life on Earth. When the rhythmic pulse of our heartbeat, breathing, or neural activity is…
Three great ways to lose money
There must be a thousand ways to lose money trading, and most of them are bad ways. Many traders, especially newer traders, are paralyzed by fear of loss. Many traders…
Europe is vulnerable
We are seeing a potential divergence in the performance of US and European stocks. European stocks are showing overtly bearish patterns, lead by clean breakdowns out of weekly bear flags…
Small cap underperformance?
A lot of people are focusing on the recent small cap underperformance today. Let's take a look at a little bit of history; here is a chart of the Russell…
The one thing I am paying attention to in the S&P 500 right now
We are awash in opinion and speculation. Every trader is writing blog posts or tweets about why the market will go up or down, and citing any number of factors.…
Followthrough matters: using subjective analysis in the S&P 500
I've focused quite a bit here on quantitative aspects of trading and market analysis, and I've also just scratched the surface of the thorny subject of intuition. Today, I want…
Watch the S&P 500 index tomorrow
US Stocks stand at an important potential inflection. Structurally, we have seen much support for US stocks to emerge as the global relative strength leader, should stocks break out into…
Death and golden crosses: a deeper look
Last week, I wrote a post looking at the (apparently) impending Death Cross in the Russell 2000 index. In that post and the data examined, I found an interesting and…
Death cross: omen or not?
One of the recurring themes in my work is that most of the technical tools most people use do not show an actual edge in the market--in other words, as…
Reader question: regrets in trading?
Reader Thomas asks: have you ever written about regrets in trading? They seem to dominate mine...missing an entry, not taking the exit, etc Good question, Thomas, and, no, this isn't…
An important question about risk/reward
So, in doing my weekend work, I found what looks like a decent long trade in NYSE: STT. There are a number of supporting factors on this chart, but it…
Five ways to awaken intuition in trading
This post continues the discussion on finding the Art in technical analysis. Read that first, and also this post, on bringing broad intuition into your experience. For quantitatively-inclined traders (such…
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