Slip and slide (along the bands)
Effective trading patterns are usually simple. The more complicated an idea is, the more likely it is the result of trying to fit very random data (i.e., the market) into…
Trading against your bias: how and why
I initiated a short in crude oil back in July, and an astute reader sent me a good question. For many weeks/months I had been operating with the assumption that…
Using context to refine an entry in the EURUSD
The EUR/USD provides a good example of how we can use higher timeframe context to motivate an entry based on a lower timeframe breakout. First, the big(ger) picture, from the…
Hidden in plain sight: trading multiple timeframe influences
Multiple timeframe analysis is almost a buzzword in technical analysis. I have been involved in markets actively for two decades, and have been an active participant in dialogue about markets…
Filter out the noise and find your focus: pullback trading candidates
For anyone actively trading, looking at the markets you follow is a critical part of the investment process. Whether you do this once a week, once a day, or many…
Taming the bear in the Russell 2000
Let me preface this by saying two things: First, I'm bullish on global stocks over even moderately long timeframes. Technicians like to call tops, but I think this bull market…
Reading trend strength through patterns
There are patterns in market prices that can point to trading opportunities and potential profits. This is one of the fundamental assumptions of technical/tactical trading (and can be verified by…
Ready to rumble? Is the US Dollar set for another breakout?
To trade or invest successfully, we have to think one step ahead of the market, but we have to discipline ourselves not to act early. We also must strike a…
US Dollar trend update… next steps
Just a quick followup to this post, in which I suggested the US Dollar might be set for a fakeout rally (that has happened) that might fail into a sharp…
Watch for a US Dollar fakeout
Markets move in alternating waves of with-trend strength (or weakness) interspersed with moves against the trend. We call these moves pullbacks or consolidations, and they create some of the most…
The S&P 500 setup heading into the Fed meeting
[This post was originally published on SeeItMarket.com, here. I have added some comments at the end of the post to update following yesterday's action. Despite the fact the market rallied…
To buy or not to buy…?
We can simplify many of the problems of technical or tactical trading to one question: assume that a market just made a large move. Do we want to fade (go…
Trading a long complicated pullback in the Dollar
We spend a lot of time, as traders, developing skills of precision trading: when to enter trades, where to put stops, when to add, when to take partial profits, when…
Lessons from pattern failures in gold
I thought it might be useful to take a look at one of the most common trading patterns, the flag, and, more importantly, to see what happens when it doesn't…
Buying the Russell 2000 index
A look at the technical justification and support for a long trade in the Russell 2000 index, or other US indexes.
How to trade Complex Consolidations
This is the second in a series of posts on pattern recognition, following up on yesterday's post that dealt with trading simple pullbacks. The pullback truly is one of the…