Three steps to make sure you never miss that move
I've written a few posts recently about doing the right thing and the pain of missing moves. Sometimes very simple concepts can get us far, and I want to propose…
Doing the right thing: Bias, opinion, and action points
One of the great things about writing a daily research piece is that it serves as a good record of my thought process and perspective on markets on each and…
Putting momentum to work for you
Financial markets are confusing--there's no doubt about that. Sudden reversals, spikes, dull dead periods exploding into panic, fakeouts and fakeouts of fakeouts... the list goes on, but traders and investors…
Down in the trenches with trading tactics
In my last blog post, I made an argument that the details of patterns do not matter--get the idea and the big picture right, and everything else is much easier.…
What’s going on? Thinking conceptually about patterns.
When I started trading, like many people, I was drawn to traditional technical analysis. I spent hours and hours studying different variations of patterns, often after creating the charts myself…
Lessons from a reader: trade review of CREE
I received a good question from a long-time reader on a trade he executed in CREE. Here's Jim's (edited) question: I’ve been trying to swing trade for a few years…
AUDUSD: Short-term inflections or trend change?
One of the key challenges for discretionary traders is balancing short-term and longer-term information. Err too far on either side, and bad things will happen: Focus too much on short-term,…
Patterns within patterns
One of the problems swing traders in stocks face is correlation; the sad reality is that stocks mostly move together, and trades in stocks mostly win and lose together. If…
No, it’s not all the same.
In my last post, I showed a quick test of a simple system applied to the futures markets. The point of that post was to show how a simple quantitative…
Testing a trend-following approach in futures
In this post, we'll take a look at a common trend-following trading idea: channel breakouts (also called Donchian channels). I want to share with you a way of looking at…
The early bird… gets stopped out a lot
One of the themes I've written on recently is that we need to be careful how we think about trend change and end of trend patterns. I think too much…
Don’t be this guy
Take a look at this picture which I took a few years ago, on a Friday afternoon, on a New York / New Jersey ferry. After a long and stressful…
The beginning of another trend in Nasdaq stocks?
A few months ago I wrote a post on a certain kind of trending pattern I have called "slide along the bands." This pattern is characterized by a market that…
Surfing the market waves: the nested pullback
Patterns are important in trading; you might even say that trading is basically a game of recognizing the right patterns and doing the right thing when they happen. Most of…
No, it’s not all the same
I'm convinced that one of the biggest lies of traditional technical analysis (TA) is that "you can apply any tool to any market or any timeframe with the same results."…
What matters more than your process?
So, we live in a world in which investors are nervous. Everyone knows the Fed is going to raise rates, it's only a question of when and how much. Everyone…
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