Biotech: buy the dip?
Short answer: probably not. The long answer is more instructive, so let's get started. Context matters, but what does that mean? What is context? In this case, the longer-term relative…
Finding trend days in index futures
I've written on this topic before, but we just had a good example in the market, so it's a great time to revisit. Many intraday traders find that most of…
One, two, three steps to shorting stocks
I want to share a quick short setup in the S&P 500 index today. This is a repeatable pattern, and draws on many elements I have discussed here on my…
The trend is your friend, except at the end…
Let's talk about endings today. If we can better understand the patterns that often occur when trends end, we are better equipped to manage risk, place stops, and, in general,…
Where will the S&P 500 go next? Here’s how to find the answer.
Given the action in US stocks this week, I thought this might be a good time to share a few thoughts about the market. I hope to be able to…
Slip and slide (along the bands)
Effective trading patterns are usually simple. The more complicated an idea is, the more likely it is the result of trying to fit very random data (i.e., the market) into…
Trading against your bias: how and why
I initiated a short in crude oil back in July, and an astute reader sent me a good question. For many weeks/months I had been operating with the assumption that…
MarketLife Ep 22 – Acts of God: managing market extremes
This podcast episode looks at trading around market extremes, Acts of God, and very large market moves. From market history, some examples might be 9/11, 1987, Fukushima, Katrina, etc. Today,…
China is in a bear market! Now what?
If you could hear anything beyond the screaming this morning over Greece, you probably also heard the news that China is now officially--yes, that's right officially--in a bear market as…
Using context to refine an entry in the EURUSD
The EUR/USD provides a good example of how we can use higher timeframe context to motivate an entry based on a lower timeframe breakout. First, the big(ger) picture, from the…
Short term trading strategies that work
Over the past week or so, I've written a bit about short term trading strategies on my blog, and I've also done two podcasts (here and here.) Starting tomorrow, I'm…
Gap and go or gap and crap?
Gaps are important. Gaps on charts can show powerful shifts in market dynamics, and we can identify some interesting tendencies around these gaps. Intraday traders often find an edge in…
Traders get an edge by thinking in categories
Richard Wyckoff was one of the founding fathers of technical analysis, and one of his most useful concepts was to divide the market into an idealized cycle of accumulation, mark-up,…
Hidden in plain sight: trading multiple timeframe influences
Multiple timeframe analysis is almost a buzzword in technical analysis. I have been involved in markets actively for two decades, and have been an active participant in dialogue about markets…
Filter out the noise and find your focus: pullback trading candidates
For anyone actively trading, looking at the markets you follow is a critical part of the investment process. Whether you do this once a week, once a day, or many…
Taming the bear in the Russell 2000
Let me preface this by saying two things: First, I'm bullish on global stocks over even moderately long timeframes. Technicians like to call tops, but I think this bull market…
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