Does the 200 day moving average “work”?
This is one of those technical questions that does not have a quick, simple answer. The best answer is "no, not really, and almost certainly not in the way most…
The big problem with seasonality
This is the time of year when we typically start hearing seasonal predictions for the stock market. There are a few problems with seasonality, the biggest of which is that…
About those small and mid caps…
Everyone is talking about the recent underperformance of small caps (and I've talked about it too!) This underperformance is taken to be a sign of an impending crash, or at…
One step ahead…
The most important factor setting up pullback trades, and a simple framework for market and trend analysis that really works.
Hey, that’s different!
It pays to think deeply about markets, how they move, risk, opportunity, and how it all plays out in the grand scheme of probability. We can and should spend a…
Market stats: how to catch a common error
Financial markets are highly uncertain, and every decision we make is ruled by the iron fist of probability. For traders and investors, statistics, whether expressed explicitly or learned implicitly from…
Three great ways to lose money
There must be a thousand ways to lose money trading, and most of them are bad ways. Many traders, especially newer traders, are paralyzed by fear of loss. Many traders…
Europe is vulnerable
We are seeing a potential divergence in the performance of US and European stocks. European stocks are showing overtly bearish patterns, lead by clean breakdowns out of weekly bear flags…
Small cap underperformance?
A lot of people are focusing on the recent small cap underperformance today. Let's take a look at a little bit of history; here is a chart of the Russell…
The one thing I am paying attention to in the S&P 500 right now
We are awash in opinion and speculation. Every trader is writing blog posts or tweets about why the market will go up or down, and citing any number of factors.…
Five ways to awaken intuition in trading
This post continues the discussion on finding the Art in technical analysis. Read that first, and also this post, on bringing broad intuition into your experience. For quantitatively-inclined traders (such…
Midweek reading and links
...the words “leverage” and “derivative” have become so mushy and ill-used that they have lost almost all meaning except as a weapon, as a tool to cast doubt on someone’s…
Screening for stock trading candidates (2/2)
(Continued from this post.) I left you yesterday having discussed filtering for volume and activity and volatility. Today, let's dig a bit deeper and, first, look at filtering for certain…
Screening for stock trading candidates (1/2)
[dc]A[/dc]ttention is a precious resource. None of us, whether individuals or institutions, have an unlimited supply of attention. Part of the process of trading successfully is figuring out where to…
Continuing the discussion on the art of pattern recognition
...the video blog I posted last night has some good information on subjective pattern recognition and trade management, along with some specific comments on the art aspect of trading. It…
Video blog: trade review and the art of trading management
Continuing from yesterday's post, I thought it might be interesting to review some trade setups I posted here this month (here and here, but also this post on the euro…
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