Why Bitcoin was a clear short
On 4 December, I fired off a quick tweet that generated a lot of discussion in my Facebook and email inboxes. (Curiously enough, not so much discussion on the tweek…
Why I’m not worried about a recession (yet)
Investors are terrified at the thought of a recession. (Writers love it, because everyone will read an article on a recession!) Investors are right to be concerned, as bear markets…
What can we learn from the range?
Markets broadly exist in two states: trends or trading ranges. In other words, a market is happy with the current price (and accepts it) or is moving to another price.…
Using statistics to map the trading day
This will be a very quick blog, as I'm just typing a few thoughts here in the first few minutes of what might be a volatile trading day. This morning,…
Santa Claus rally: updated stats and expectations
This is the last in a series of blogs looking at December seasonality in stocks. To quickly recap, the first post used a simple binary (up/down) classification to look at…
Chartschool: Reactions and overreactions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0p3hwQjWkCk
Why were we focused on NZD trades?
A week ago, I pointed out trade setups in NZDUSD and many NZD crosses to my MarketLife and Talon clients. Of course, one issue currency traders need to consider is…
Is Santa afraid of the Bear?
This is a continuation of a series of posts looking at December seasonality in the stock market. The previous post is here, and the goal of this series is to…
‘Tis the season… or is it? A deeper look at seasonality in stocks.
This is a followup to my previous post that included a visualization of seasonal tendencies for about 90 years of the US stock market. A visualization like that is a good…
Is Santa Real? Monthly seasonality in the DJIA
This is the first in a short series of blogs in which we will look at the so-called Santa Claus rally in stocks and find some answers to the question…
How to avoid some bad trades
Take a look at the chart above. Notice three things near the right edge of the chart: An intermediate term moving average is flat Price is never moving far from…
How to learn about indicators
This weekend, a reader, Paul, asked: In my limited understanding, Rsi, cci and % r are all basically trying to show the same thing When is one better than the…
An old paper I co-authored: Patterns in Stock Market Returns (2006)
As we round the corner into the Thanksgiving holiday, I thought I would share another piece of my old writing. I recently found this paper as I was searching through…
Guest post: Ohhh, Is That A Shiny Penny On The Ground?
[Here's a guest post from a great system developer, honest guy, and my friend Kevin Davey. He beat me to the punch with an article on option selling/writing premium. Tom…
Let’s talk turkey: Thanksgiving seasonality in stocks
This is a slightly edited version of the note I sent to my Talon Advisors clients this weekend. There is always a lot of discussion about seasonality at the end…
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