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The Blog of Adam H Grimes

musings on markets, risk, and life.

An important question about risk/reward

So, in doing my weekend work, I found what looks like a decent long trade in NYSE: STT. There are a number of supporting factors on this chart, but it is essentially a breakout trade supported by consolidation below the level and higher lows into resistance: But then,... read more

Five ways to awaken intuition in trading

This post continues the discussion on finding the Art in technical analysis. Read that first, and also this post, on bringing broad intuition into your experience. For quantitatively-inclined traders (such as myself), discretion can be a problem. First, many system... read more

Current market overview: weekly webinar

This is an important time in global markets. Equities are at a potentially important inflection, and short term noise may be misleading many players. Currencies have had some fantastic moves, but now there is the danger of snapbacks over the next few weeks. Precious... read more

Reader question: why do patterns work?

A really interesting discussion developed in the comments to this post on pullbacks. Since you’re capable of clicking the link and reading the comments, I won’t copy the whole discussion here, but just some highlights: Markus asked: Adam, what I... read more

The pullback: a trade that works

I’ve written quite a bit lately on things that don’t work, and tried to point out some errors in common practical technical analysis. Yes, I’ll do more of that in the future (I suppose perhaps because I am a curmudgeonly soul (and, really, how often... read more

Tracking intraday risk and opportunity

I spend a lot of time writing about volatility and even more time thinking about volatility, correlations, and the implications for risk. I want to share a quick look at one of the screens I monitor intraday. Charts are very helpful, for many reasons, but where they... read more

Beware of markets bearing gifts… but take them!

Today’s topic might appear to be a fun one, but, for the unprepared trader, there is actually serious danger here. What do we do when a trade results in a larger than expected win? What do we do when volatility becomes much larger than when we put the trade on,... read more

A crystal ball?

Over the years, I’ve had my fair share of being on both the right and wrong side of world events. However, on balance, I’ve noticed an unusual number of times that I am in trades that appear to have somehow predicted the future–whether being in a... read more

Bobbing for Apple?

Since my other post today led you down a long trail of something that did not work, let me leave you this weekend with a pattern to watch over the next several weeks. Let’s consider a potentially bearish pattern in Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), and how that might play... read more

The sweet taste of… failure?

I’m always doing research. Sometimes these are large, multi-month projects, but other times they are just a quick look to see “what the data says”, and I share some of those results with you here. However, most research does not yield... read more

The problem with reversals

One of the curious elements of human psychology is the tendency to fade moves or to try to pick turning points in trends. When I started trading, this was how I started out–looking for patterns that showed a trend was ending and trying to take a counter-trend... read more

Midweek reading and links

…the words “leverage” and “derivative” have become so mushy and ill-used that they have lost almost all meaning except as a weapon, as a tool to cast doubt on someone’s motives, competency, and ethics… (Salient) Be careful of extrapolating to the future... read more

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