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Trading against your bias: how and why

I initiated a short in crude oil back in July, and an astute reader sent me a good question. For many weeks/months I had been operating with the assumption that crude oil was probably putting in a long-term bottom based on the action back in March/April of 2015; his... read more

Back in the saddle again

I thought I’d kick the week off with a short, and maybe uncharacteristically personal post. As you’ve noticed, I haven’t posted much (umm… at all) over the past few weeks. I was on a little “vacation” eating my way through part of... read more

Posts are slow lately…

Just a quick (semi) post here to apologize for the lack of new posts here! I have some good stuff for you soon, but also a few things sucking up all available time. Think of a week or two here as me taking a mini vacation from blogging… though you might get some... read more

MarketLife Ep 22 – Acts of God: managing market extremes

This podcast episode looks at trading around market extremes, Acts of God, and very large market moves. From market history, some examples might be 9/11, 1987, Fukushima, Katrina, etc. Today, Greece has the potential to lead to these types of moves and extremes.... read more

Catching the wave: ideas for finding trend days

I received a question from Alex, which appears to be a simple question. Digging deeper, it actually drives straight to the essence of intraday trading: If I am wanting to trade intraday on the ES, are there some high probability ways to determine whether the day is... read more

China is in a bear market! Now what?

If you could hear anything beyond the screaming this morning over Greece, you probably also heard the news that China is now officially–yes, that’s right officially–in a bear market as the major index has slipped 20% from its highs. This makes for a... read more

Using context to refine an entry in the EURUSD

The EUR/USD provides a good example of how we can use higher timeframe context to motivate an entry based on a lower timeframe breakout. First, the big(ger) picture, from the weekly chart: Reading market structure is important, and it’s not that hard to do, with... read more

MarketLife Ep 21 – Pulling the trigger: where, how, and why?

A look at how to execute trades: where they set up, and how, when, where, and why to pull the trigger–to make the decision to get into or out of a trade. Here are the show notes: Key assumptions: Most of what we see is random. I will be wrong a lot. So I can’t... read more

Six keys to effective risk management

1. It is not just that risk is hard to understand–some risks may be impossible to understand. Your risk management plan has to leave room for the unknown and the unknowable. This is why advice from great traders always includes a reminder to “stay... read more

Where are your risks?

Traders talk about and think about risk all the time, and for good reason: this is a risky business! A lot of things can go wrong, and some of those things can be very dangerous–a single mistake can effectively put a trader out of business, often in a matter of... read more

MarketLife Ep 20 – Market cycles and regimes

A_Joe sent me a question on market cycles: You wrote a post (here) that talked about market cycles. I request that you share some more information on market regimes and how it works within the framework of the market and business cycle. Ideas like regime... read more

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