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The Blog of Adam H Grimes

musings on markets, risk, and life.

Three great ways to lose money

There must be a thousand ways to lose money trading, and most of them are bad ways. Many traders, especially newer traders, are paralyzed by fear of loss. Many traders go “on tilt” due the frustration of losses, and throw good money after bad, sometimes... read more

Europe is vulnerable

We are seeing a potential divergence in the performance of US and European stocks. European stocks are showing overtly bearish patterns, lead by clean breakdowns out of weekly bear flags in France and Germany. US stocks have certainly suffered, but the best shorts are... read more

Small cap underperformance?

A lot of people are focusing on the recent small cap underperformance today. Let’s take a look at a little bit of history; here is a chart of the Russell 2000 index (representing small and mid cap stocks), with a line underneath showing its relative performance... read more

Watch the S&P 500 index tomorrow

US Stocks stand at an important potential inflection. Structurally, we have seen much support for US stocks to emerge as the global relative strength leader, should stocks break out into another rally leg, and it is important to temper any natural bearishness. Yes,... read more

Death and golden crosses: a deeper look

Last week, I wrote a post looking at the (apparently) impending Death Cross in the Russell 2000 index. In that post and the data examined, I found an interesting and statistically significant short-term signal for the Death Cross, but no effect for the Golden Cross. I... read more

Death cross: omen or not?

One of the recurring themes in my work is that most of the technical tools most people use do not show an actual edge in the market–in other words, as hard is it may be to say, most things most people do simply do not work. In particular, there are a few... read more

Reader question: regrets in trading?

Reader Thomas asks: have you ever written about regrets in trading? They seem to dominate mine…missing an entry, not taking the exit, etc Good question, Thomas, and, no, this isn’t something I have written about recently. I do think it’s an important... read more

An important question about risk/reward

So, in doing my weekend work, I found what looks like a decent long trade in NYSE: STT. There are a number of supporting factors on this chart, but it is essentially a breakout trade supported by consolidation below the level and higher lows into resistance: But then,... read more

Five ways to awaken intuition in trading

This post continues the discussion on finding the Art in technical analysis. Read that first, and also this post, on bringing broad intuition into your experience. For quantitatively-inclined traders (such as myself), discretion can be a problem. First, many system... read more

Current market overview: weekly webinar

This is an important time in global markets. Equities are at a potentially important inflection, and short term noise may be misleading many players. Currencies have had some fantastic moves, but now there is the danger of snapbacks over the next few weeks. Precious... read more

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