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Catching the wave: ideas for finding trend days

I received a question from Alex, which appears to be a simple question. Digging deeper, it actually drives straight to the essence of intraday trading: If I am wanting to trade intraday on the ES, are there some high probability ways to determine whether the day is... read more

China is in a bear market! Now what?

If you could hear anything beyond the screaming this morning over Greece, you probably also heard the news that China is now officially–yes, that’s right officially–in a bear market as the major index has slipped 20% from its highs. This makes for a... read more

Using context to refine an entry in the EURUSD

The EUR/USD provides a good example of how we can use higher timeframe context to motivate an entry based on a lower timeframe breakout. First, the big(ger) picture, from the weekly chart: Reading market structure is important, and it’s not that hard to do, with... read more

MarketLife Ep 21 – Pulling the trigger: where, how, and why?

A look at how to execute trades: where they set up, and how, when, where, and why to pull the trigger–to make the decision to get into or out of a trade. Here are the show notes: Key assumptions: Most of what we see is random. I will be wrong a lot. So I can’t... read more

Six keys to effective risk management

1. It is not just that risk is hard to understand–some risks may be impossible to understand. Your risk management plan has to leave room for the unknown and the unknowable. This is why advice from great traders always includes a reminder to “stay... read more

Where are your risks?

Traders talk about and think about risk all the time, and for good reason: this is a risky business! A lot of things can go wrong, and some of those things can be very dangerous–a single mistake can effectively put a trader out of business, often in a matter of... read more

MarketLife Ep 20 – Market cycles and regimes

A_Joe sent me a question on market cycles: You wrote a post (here) that talked about market cycles. I request that you share some more information on market regimes and how it works within the framework of the market and business cycle. Ideas like regime... read more

Chart of the day: Short term setup in S&P 500 (6/5/15)

Yesterday’s moderately strong downtrend came within higher timeframe consolidation. This is still a market primed for a stronger trend move. Do not fade a break above or below key levels on the daily chart. Fridays can generate some strong trending action ahead of the... read more

Time of day influences in currencies

In my last post, I looked at intraday activity in stock indexes; I had a few requests to repeat the same work, showing time of day influences–intraday volume (tick volume) and trend strength–for a handful of major currencies. I’ll just present the... read more

Chart of the day: S&P 500 short term setup (6/4/15)

This is still a market seeking a catalyst, though bullish factors continue to accumulate. Look for a strong rally above the 2121-2124 level; do not fade a breakout that holds above that level. After several days in a large consolidation area, there is a higher... read more

It’s all in a day’s work

I want to share a few observations on trading activity during the trading day. I will focus on the S&P 500 futures here, but may extend this (if there’s interest) to look at a few currencies and maybe other commodities. The same general, broad concepts will... read more

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