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The Blog of Adam H Grimes

musings on markets, risk, and life.

Discretionary and consistent? How?

I’ve been asked a few variations of the same interesting question recently. Here are a few examples: The one thing I keep struggling with is finding an edge I can use in a disciplined and consistent way. How do you define an edge? To me an edge can’t be... read more

Managing your luck

I left you, at the end of yesterday’s post, with some strong evidence that luck plays a big part in your trading results. Now for the good news: you are not powerless against luck. People say many different things about luck, like “luck is what happens... read more

What’s luck got to do with it?

Let’s cut straight to the punchline: the answer is, “it turns out, quite a lot.” Continuing on this week’s series that attempts to break down important technical trading ideas into easily digestible pieces for everyone, let’s take a look... read more

Technicals for everyone: overbought / oversold

Continuing from yesterday’s post, I wanted to dig a little bit deeper into the idea of what happens when markets go too far, too fast and snap back. This concept is called overbought/oversold in the traditional technical literature, and it is one of the most... read more

Technical tools for everyone

If you read much of my work, you will begin to see that applying technical tools takes work; it takes a lot of time and experience to know how to apply them correctly, even if we are using relatively simple tools with a statistical edge. (Beware: most technical tools... read more

The Failure Test

Despite all the good reasons for focusing on with-trend trading, the first pattern I taught in my book was a little countertrend pattern–the failure test. Why? In this case, the reason is that the pattern is clearly defined, and it’s easier to make... read more

Style matters

Last week, I covered pullback trading, which is one of the most common and most important with-trend trading patterns. This week, I will dig deeper into some different patterns, but I thought it was worthwhile to first think a bit about the differences between with... read more

The nested pullback

This is the third article in my series on pattern recognition, and the last on pullbacks. Most patterns in markets are relatively simple, and most patterns were labeled long ago. True, there are many variations and refinements on pattern names, but there just... read more

How to trade Complex Consolidations

This is the second in a series of posts on pattern recognition, following up on yesterday’s post that dealt with trading simple pullbacks. The pullback truly is one of the most useful trading patterns, and many traders find success with a program focusing on... read more

How to trade pullbacks

I’m starting a short series of posts here on pattern recognition, focusing on simple patterns that I have found useful in actual trading. Some of my readers may have questions as to whether it is possible to trade profitably based on simple patterns, given that... read more

Reader question: Sentiment analysis?

Reader Tom asks: I have been reading your blog for a few weeks and I don’t see any mention of sentiment. I also see you trade futures but you do not talk about Commitment of Traders like on the Euro recently. Is this stuff you use but don’t write about?... read more

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