Trading tools
Is a market trending or not? Even this simple question, which is at the heart of most of our thinking about markets, is not easy to answer. Definitions of trend are often subjective, depend on both timeframe (e.g., daily or intraday) and reference period (i.e., how far are
Breakout
Just a high level perspective on what we have going on in a few major markets this week. In general, most markets are in some kind of volatility compression. Volatility compression is a term that basically means current volatility conditions are low, relative to more "normal" volatility for
General Comments
I thought it might be useful to take a look at one of the most common trading patterns, the flag, and, more importantly, to see what happens when it doesn't work out. If we understand how patterns fail, we are better equipped to trade those patterns, and, sometimes,
Market Math
Yesterday, I discussed some reasons why traders might want to consider looking at, or trading, the relative performance between markets. Today, let's look at a simple way to display that relative performance, and consider some things that can go wrong. Tracking relative performance simply means we want to
Individual Traders
The marketplace is constantly evolving. One of the biggest changes over the past decade is the proliferation of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) that allow stock traders to trade commodities (and other financial instruments) in a stock account. Much of the traded universe of financial products is now available just by
Individual Traders
I f you read much of my work, you will begin to see that applying technical tools takes work; it takes a lot of time and experience to know how to apply them correctly, even if we are using relatively simple tools with a statistical edge. (Beware: most technical tools
Pullback
I'm starting a short series of posts here on pattern recognition, focusing on simple patterns that I have found useful in actual trading. Some of my readers may have questions as to whether it is possible to trade profitably based on simple patterns, given that so much modern
Chart of the Day
I thought this was a good time to take a look at current market conditions in US stocks. This is certainly a time when risk, emotions, and volatility are elevated, but it is also a market that is still within "normal parameters". Probabilities favor a snapback, but there
Psychology
Everyone does it. I used to do it too, but I stopped because I realized I looked silly a few months down the road. You've heard the predictions: "if this level breaks, it's game over", "if the 200 day breaks, it's
Chart of the Day
This is an important time in global markets. Equities are at a potentially important inflection, and short term noise may be misleading many players. Currencies have had some fantastic moves, but now there is the danger of snapbacks over the next few weeks. Precious metals, petroleum, grains? There is opportunity,