Adam Grimes has over two decades of experience in the industry as a trader, analyst and system developer. The author of a best-selling trading book, he has traded for his own account, for a top prop firm, and spent several years at the New York Mercantile Exchange. He focuses on the intersection of quantitative analysis and discretionary trading, and has a talent for teaching and helping traders find their own way in the market.
Thank you Adam,
I struggle with this on the daily time frame as it looks like a blow off reversal Candlestick and yet the under current seems to be weighing down oil if it cannot get above $50. Looking at the Weekly or Monthly chart it still looks like the pressure is from overhead as a bear flag to me. Am I missing something? Is better to look at the Weekly on this type of move for the perspective?
On the daily chart it almost looks like the last blow off November 14th resulted in a short term run up but was also confirmed with a strong white candle the next day where as today we have fallen below $46 as I type this. So are you saying that the because we had the parabolic move from about $54 down after we lost the range from December to March that this gives a stronger probability to a further fall or because we failed to push above $48 resistance after the spike? It just confuses me as it seems like we had a similar spike in November and a similar parabolic move but the difference was the strong bullish candle the next day which killed off the decline in hindsight and a market structure change. Oil has been a tough one since Mid 2014 I feel with a dull bounce in 2016. When I look at the chart I see no confirmation of the daily spike from Friday which makes me think the spike would be more likely to consumed this week rather than a climb above $48. Thoughts?